Iowa Caucus 2008

Posted on January 3rd, 2008 in Ron Paul 2008 by Justin

I’m going to update this post as the night goes on.

News just said that Huckabee was in the lead based on entrance polls with Romney right behind him. No mention of who was in 3rd so I’m going to go out on a limb here and say it’s Paul. I think they would have mentioned anybody else. Yeah, I’m a tin-foil hat nutter sometimes.

9:02pm Eastern Huckabee’s got this thing wrapped up. Only 15% of precints reporting but he’s sitting pretty good with 35% of the vote. Romney is at 24% and then it gets interesting:

  • Thompson: 14%
  • McCain: 12%
  • Ron Paul (not even worth an invite to the next debate!): 11%

9:14pm:WTF? Giuliani just popped up. Previously he was at 3%. Now:

  • Thompson: 13%
  • McCain: 12%
  • Giuliani: 11%
  • Ron Paul: 10%

40% of precints reporting. Now I’m worried.

9:37pm:WTF explained — Des Moines must have just posted their results when Giuliani surged up. He’s back down at 4% again with 65% of precints reporting. The 3rd place competition right now:

  • Thompson: 14%
  • McCain: 13%
  • Ron Paul: 11%

10:44pm: Okay, Huckabee is giving a speech with Chuck Norris right behind him. The Youtube commercial was silly. This is just plain surreal.

12:20am: Okay, 93% of precints reporting on the Republican side. Paul is still at 10% and in 5th place. It’s done.

Iowa

Posted on January 3rd, 2008 in Ron Paul 2008 by Justin

Well, Iowa will caucus tomorrow. Well, today, as I’m posting this after midnight.

I’ll admit, I’m a bit nervous. I’m a Ron Paul guy so I’ve pretty much had to pretend that all of the polling data is somehow inaccurate up to this point. Somehow the primaes will turn out differently.

Well, tomorrow reality will probably come crashing down. I really don’t expect Ron Paul to place any higher than 3rd in Iowa. I think Huckabee will take Iowa with Romney coming in 2nd. Just a gut feeling. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain takes 3rd and bumps Paul to 4th either.

New Hampshire on the other hand, just 5 days away, could very well be a turning point for me. Honestly, if Paul doesn’t at least take 2nd there I don’t see much hope in him getting the nomination. New Hampshire should be an easy state for Paul to place high in. A large number (I think 40%) of the voters are registered Independant and it was the target of the liberarian-minded Free State Project. If Paul can’t win there, or at least make a really good showing, I think the campaign is doomed.

In related news I caught a new Ron Paul radio spot today centered on national security. Much better than his anti-NAFTA ad that had been airing around here.