Justin Buist

Yeah, I haven’t posted much lately.

Michigan’s primary is today. I’ll be heading in to vote for Ron Paul.

Jay Leno had Ron Paul on The Tonight Show Monday night. I got a chance to catch it.

Leno explained before Paul got out there that he had caught wind that Paul wasn’t invited to the Fox News debate in New Hampshire the other day, so he called Paul up and invited him on the show.

I think Paul came off well and got a chance to talk about what happened and had a sufficient amount of time to cover the issues that make him really stand out from the other Republicans. Now, I don’t expect this to create any real bump for Paul in New Hampshire on Tuesday. At the most perhaps a single percentage point, but considering that he’s tied with Huckabee for 3rd right now in the latest polls that I’ve seen that might be all it takes to give him 3rd place.

So, my predictions for New Hampshire’s Republican primary are:

#1: McCain (28-32%)
#2: Romney (18-22%)
#3: Paul or Huckabee (10-13%)
#4: Paul or Huckabee (9-12%)
#5: Giuliani
#6: Thompson

Pretty much the same thing that Doug Mataconis predicts here.

Doug also mentions the Michigan primary in his post and I agree that Romney will take this state. Michigan’s economy is in the shitter and Republicans here (justifiably) love successful businessmen as politicians. Now, my home county, and where I will be voting, Ottawa, will come down to either Paul or Huckabee. I wouldn’t be surprised if the same holds true for Kent county. Nobody plays the Jesus Card better than Huckabee and that will do well here.

Now, why do I think Paul will do well here? I can’t turn around without bumping into another Paul supporter. There are people I’ve known for more than half my life that are Paul supporters and I’d have never thought them to be. That and I’ve never seen anything but a Ron Paul yard sign around here.

Hey, I never claimed to be a scientific pollster!

Here they are.

#1: Romney (67%)
#2: Thompson (25%)
#3: Hunter (8%)

McCain, Paul, Giuliani, and Huckabee scored 0 delegates on this one.

I honestly thought Paul would have had more support out in Wyoming than that.

I’m going to update this post as the night goes on.

News just said that Huckabee was in the lead based on entrance polls with Romney right behind him. No mention of who was in 3rd so I’m going to go out on a limb here and say it’s Paul. I think they would have mentioned anybody else. Yeah, I’m a tin-foil hat nutter sometimes.

9:02pm Eastern Huckabee’s got this thing wrapped up. Only 15% of precints reporting but he’s sitting pretty good with 35% of the vote. Romney is at 24% and then it gets interesting:

• Thompson: 14%
• McCain: 12%
• Ron Paul (not even worth an invite to the next debate!): 11%

9:14pm:WTF? Giuliani just popped up. Previously he was at 3%. Now:

• Thompson: 13%
• McCain: 12%
• Giuliani: 11%
• Ron Paul: 10%

40% of precints reporting. Now I’m worried.

9:37pm:WTF explained — Des Moines must have just posted their results when Giuliani surged up. He’s back down at 4% again with 65% of precints reporting. The 3rd place competition right now:

• Thompson: 14%
• McCain: 13%
• Ron Paul: 11%

10:44pm: Okay, Huckabee is giving a speech with Chuck Norris right behind him. The Youtube commercial was silly. This is just plain surreal.

12:20am: Okay, 93% of precints reporting on the Republican side. Paul is still at 10% and in 5th place. It’s done.

Well, Iowa will caucus tomorrow. Well, today, as I’m posting this after midnight.

I’ll admit, I’m a bit nervous. I’m a Ron Paul guy so I’ve pretty much had to pretend that all of the polling data is somehow inaccurate up to this point. Somehow the primaes will turn out differently.

Well, tomorrow reality will probably come crashing down. I really don’t expect Ron Paul to place any higher than 3rd in Iowa. I think Huckabee will take Iowa with Romney coming in 2nd. Just a gut feeling. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain takes 3rd and bumps Paul to 4th either.

New Hampshire on the other hand, just 5 days away, could very well be a turning point for me. Honestly, if Paul doesn’t at least take 2nd there I don’t see much hope in him getting the nomination. New Hampshire should be an easy state for Paul to place high in. A large number (I think 40%) of the voters are registered Independant and it was the target of the liberarian-minded Free State Project. If Paul can’t win there, or at least make a really good showing, I think the campaign is doomed.

In related news I caught a new Ron Paul radio spot today centered on national security. Much better than his anti-NAFTA ad that had been airing around here.